War & PoliticsBrexit deal nigh or nyet?

 

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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)   
 To:  ALL
42264.94 
Ooh, they done busted out the Harmy*.



*(this is how a Québécoise friend pronounced it many moons ago)
“Reactions of shock to … are starting to populate Twitter.’”
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 From:  Dave!!  
 To:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)      
42264.95 In reply to 42264.91 
As William said, Cameron has to be in there as well. The austerity shit is a big reason, but also the whole mess we're in now due to him calling the referendum in the first place. Don't forget that he didn't call it because he believed in the UK leaving (unlike the SNP's Scotland independence referendum), he did it purely to try and boost his own power by uniting his party behind him.

He thought firstly that the Tories wouldn't win a majority, hence they'd have to go into coalition with the Lib Dems again who'd scrub the referendum from taking place (DC could then shrug at his eurosceptic MPs and say "Well, I tried. Now back me". Then when the Tories did get a majority, he never thought for one second that Leave would win, meaning that his campaigning was pitiful. He though Remain would walk it and again, he could say "I've given you the referendum, the people want to remain. Now shut up and back me".

Lastly when Leave did win, he promptly pissed off and left everyone else to deal with the mess he'd created.

Saying that, May is making a compelling argument for becoming one of the worst PMs in history due to her refusal to compromise or listen to MPs, then trying to blame them when the shit inevitably hits the fan.
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 From:  Peter (BOUGHTONP)  
 To:  Dave!!     
42264.96 In reply to 42264.95 
Cameron knew exactly what he was doing - he'd done his research and knew the vote would be close.

Whether he expected remain or leave is irrelevant, both possibilities were planned, and every moment since he announced the referendum has been a calculated charade to expand division and resentment amongst the populace, to exhaust people and grow the apathy that allows the Tories to increase their power and control.

Whether May is in on it or a puppet is irrelevant too, her actions are deliberate, her position as PM kept whilst it's needed, just like the rift in the Conservative party - they'll both be gone in moments when it's deemed beneficial to do so.


^ Can you prove that wrong?

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 From:  william (WILLIAMA)  
 To:  Peter (BOUGHTONP)     
42264.97 In reply to 42264.96 
Nope - can't prove that wrong.

I'd be surprised if Cameron was content to appear so ugly in a planned way. And I don't believe that's how it worked out.

I do believe that there's substantially more planning and less random chance in all this, however.

I also believe that Theresa May is probably close to insanity. Not saying i'm sympathetic.
never trust a man in a blue trench coat, never drive a car when you're dead
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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)   
 To:  ALL
42264.98 
And May's cunning plan is down the shitter.
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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)   
 To:  ALL
42264.99 
Ewww. She's fished it back out. Bojo's donning the "suicide vest."
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 From:  Peter (BOUGHTONP)  
 To:  ALL
42264.100 
Interesting stats: https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/ng-interactive/2019/mar/27/how-did-your-mp-vote-in-the-indicative-votes

(Though fuck knows why the idiots have numbered them in popularity order for the first list and motion order for the second list, instead of just sticking with the letters that everyone else is using.)

Customs union option would have had majority if LibDem/SNP had gone for it. Public vote could have had majority if just 14 Labour MPs had gone the other way (or DUP+4 independents), but there appears less disunity there than with the Conservatives.

A significant number of Conservatives voting against every motion. No surprise.

And they all vote again on Monday in case things are different then?

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 From:  Manthorp  
 To:  Peter (BOUGHTONP)     
42264.101 In reply to 42264.100 
Labour whipped a couple of the motions, which might have helped.

"We all have flaws, and mine is being wicked."
James Thurber, The Thirteen Clocks 1951
 
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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)   
 To:  Manthorp     
42264.102 In reply to 42264.101 
It'll be interesting to see if more parties emerge out of all this disagreeability. Reminds me of Israel, where the smallest and most fanatical ones end up with wildly disproportionate influence.
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 From:  ANT_THOMAS  
 To:  Manthorp     
42264.103 In reply to 42264.101 
Labour whipped a couple of motions and didn't some of the shadow cabinet abstain?

Not checked the details, but sure I've read that.
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 From:  Manthorp  
 To:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)      
42264.104 In reply to 42264.102 
I certainly think that the voting reform argument will rear its head again, which - if it was to come to anything - would certainly empower the smaller parties, and probably encourage other interest lobbies to partify themselves.

"We all have flaws, and mine is being wicked."
James Thurber, The Thirteen Clocks 1951
 
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 From:  Manthorp  
 To:  ANT_THOMAS     
42264.105 In reply to 42264.103 
From a cursory inspection of the Guardian's explainer, at least some of the shadow cabinet abstained from some of the motions, generally clustered around motions 5 (emergency revocation of article 50 if parliament doesn't get its shit together) and 8 (weird Schengenish shit where we remain within EEA and join Efta, but don't have a customs union).

"We all have flaws, and mine is being wicked."
James Thurber, The Thirteen Clocks 1951
 
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 From:  william (WILLIAMA)  
 To:  Manthorp     
42264.106 In reply to 42264.105 
Hah! Bumped into a former work-colleague yesterday evening. He works on what I regard as 'Nightmare Central', the massively complex mixture of billions of lines of bespoke code across dozens of platforms, and customised SAP modules that run our current Customs and Excise systems. He told me that he's working on 'Brexit stuff' but as nobody knows what this means he's pretty certain that he's wasting his time. He's one of those genuinely technically adept people you meet from time to time, with knowledge that's both broad and deep. He also has an excellent working knowledge of the infrastructure, so basically just the kind of person who would be essential for some kind of sanity to prevail in the months and years ahead. He tells me he plans to retire 'very soon' because he doesn't want to face the thankless future that will inevitably arrive whatever the Brexit outcome. 

But I was able to reassure him that I have it on good authority from Jacob Rees Mogg and Bojo that it will actually be about as simple as installing a smartphone app.
never trust a man in a blue trench coat, never drive a car when you're dead
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 From:  Manthorp  
 To:  william (WILLIAMA)     
42264.107 In reply to 42264.106 
Poor bastard! I wonder if they're building different system models around all of the possible outcomes, or working on the assumption that the most outlandish ones aren't gonna happen.

"We all have flaws, and mine is being wicked."
James Thurber, The Thirteen Clocks 1951
 
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 From:  william (WILLIAMA)  
 To:  Manthorp     
42264.108 In reply to 42264.107 
My guess would be that they are doing almost nothing because these systems are almost incomprehensibly huge and complex with inter-dependencies that are probably not even known in detail, parts dating back to the 1980s, 3rd party elements (e.g. SAP, IBM, BMC, etc etc) that are black boxes and so on. Any modelling of alternatives in anything other than the broadest most superficial ways would be a) very difficult b) very time consuming and c) most important, very expensive. 

Clearly, whatever the outcome of Brexit, we aren't looking at the whole lot being swept away, because there are parts which handle a range of similar international relationships to those we might face. But the point is changes are likely to be substantial and the two main contractors are private companies that don't like doing things for free.

I worked in an adjacent team, so I knew the people involved. We were a database support team (a load of DBAs) so very occasionally we advised on basic database issues, but SAP has it's own support methods and we stayed well clear if at all possible. 
never trust a man in a blue trench coat, never drive a car when you're dead
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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)   
 To:  william (WILLIAMA)     
42264.109 In reply to 42264.108 
Here we still haven't recovered from an attempted rebuild of the civil service payroll software, which has been through several time and cost overruns over the years and still doesn't work right, with some going unpaid for months because FUBAR.
“Reactions of shock to … are starting to populate Twitter.’”
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 From:  milko  
 To:  william (WILLIAMA)     
42264.110 In reply to 42264.108 
is there a sort of Keynesian argument that having to spend a shitload of money on doing this sort of thing will provide quite a few people with jobs and so on? I dunno, it's a bit tenuous! Just trying to eke out any kind of positive. 
milko
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 From:  Manthorp  
 To:  william (WILLIAMA)     
42264.111 In reply to 42264.108 
Sounds like the kind of lash-up that in a world of crystalline perfection should be audited, and a new system built from the ground up.

"We all have flaws, and mine is being wicked."
James Thurber, The Thirteen Clocks 1951
 
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 From:  Manthorp  
 To:  milko     
42264.112 In reply to 42264.110 
Like HS2 and other capital projects. I think of them as the equivalent of follies in the eighteenth century: consciously or not providing redistribution of wealth during fallow times, whilst not undermining patronage or the value of labour.

"We all have flaws, and mine is being wicked."
James Thurber, The Thirteen Clocks 1951
 
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 From:  william (WILLIAMA)  
 To:  Manthorp     
42264.113 In reply to 42264.111 
 
Quote: 
a world of crystalline perfection
Yeah right.

Actually, it is (or was) regularly audited, ISO Certification and all that, but because it's so massive the actual audit could only be done on bite-sized pieces. The issues for rebuilding are as numerous as a big numbery thing and I'm not sure what kind of appetite HMRC has for mega-rebuilds. They got a nasty bite from flirting with Hadoop a while back.

@Milko, I'm sure a good Keynesian argument could be made. Problem is we (maybe) leave the EU in a few weeks and at best we get a transition of less than 2 years at which point the systems must chug along as sweetly as they do now. If there's no deal and no transition then Shit Creek is low on paddles.

@DSSMITHHFX, I'm not in the least bit surprised. Public projects like this have a history of never learning from the previous fuck-up. They almost always aim to select the best (=cheapest) bids but simultaneously fail to spot that there's a reason those bids are the cheapest. Also, senior managers in the public service are notoriously fond of shiny things when they buy IT. If they can see a shiny icon (on the shiny new laptop that comes with the project) and clicking the icon makes shiny things happen, then they invariably pony up the funding even if it's a million miles from what the business needs.
 
never trust a man in a blue trench coat, never drive a car when you're dead
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