War & PoliticsBrexit deal nigh or nyet?

 

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 From:  william (WILLIAMA)  
 To:  ANT_THOMAS     
42264.78 In reply to 42264.77 
He is, isn't he. And yeah, the climate change denial thing disgusts me. I really don't believe he's stupid enough to actually believe that nearly every climate scientist in the world is wrong and Breitbart is right. My conclusion is that he's actually lying because he doesn't give a fuck about the future and instinctively supports big business and its short-term greed.

I'm kind of puzzled by people like Andrew Neil. He's obviously intelligent. I mean he's not just a product of the entitlement system like Johnson or Rees Mogg, or intellectually limited like Mark Francois, so he must have chosen to be a bad person. And I assume he's quite comfortable with life, knowing that he's an awful human being. Weird.
never trust a man in a blue trench coat, never drive a car when you're dead
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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)   
 To:  ALL
42264.79 
Bercow just tossed a spanner into it.
“Michael Jackson fan groups to sue accusers for ‘sullying his memory’”
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 From:  ANT_THOMAS  
 To:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)      
42264.80 In reply to 42264.79 
Saw that mentioned around a week ago, and it does technically make perfect sense.

Though apparently if a majority of MPs want to vote on it again they can. So May would need to find a majority to enable a vote, then get a majority to vote for her WA, who have previously massively voted against it.

Messy as per.
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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)   
 To:  ANT_THOMAS     
42264.81 In reply to 42264.80 
"Saw that mentioned around a week ago"

Yeah, I remember that, which is why I'm amazed no one saw this coming.

Alleged quote from cabinet meeting this am: “Where’s the strategy. It feels like the last days of Rome.”
“Michael Jackson fan groups to sue accusers for ‘sullying his memory’”
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 From:  william (WILLIAMA)  
 To:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)      
42264.82 In reply to 42264.81 
Well, the strategy is very obvious. Theresa May decided what the UK side would ask for in the negotiations. It was a package that ruled out what she felt her party's right wing wouldn't like, but included support for the Good Friday agreement. She involved nobody in formulating this negotiating position outside of a small group of right wing leave supporters, although the fact that these all walked away from the process, suggests that it was mainly down to her. She then spent two years (I'll say that again) she then spent TWO YEARS getting representatives of 27 separate countries to come to an agreement closely tailored to her package of requirements. 

The strategy simply involves stubbornly insisting that the UK parliament has no role other than to vote for or against this particular package [because she has no intention of allowing any input to discussion of how the UK should leave other than her own] with the threat that if it is refused the UK will get no exit deal or else we will revoke Article 50 and remain in the EU.

An alternative package that includes membership of a (or the) EU Customs Union and/or the EU Common Market without membership of the EU and it's political institutions and other financial institutions has never even been discussed by Parliament or raised with the EU negotiators. This would be hated by the Tory right wing that has a set of values honed on the playing fields of Eton and Harrow and in the drinking clubs of Oxford and Cambridge, or in the case of some such as Mark Francois, a fantasy England where World War 2 never ended. May's strategy here is to ignore the possibility that alternatives even exist.

Quite understandably, having spent 2 years discussing May's package deal, the EU doesn't want to discuss this any more. I have no idea how they might react to starting again from an entirely different place although some politicians who have raised the possibility with EU negotiators say that they might be sympathetic -  and certainly this would be closer to a model that the EU is used to with e.g. Norway. There is almost certainly a majority in the UK Parliament for this sort of arrangement, probably a substantial majority, but unfortunately the Tory rank and file seldom show the level of courage required to make this happen. And with May currently stuck on the view that her way is the only way and consequently seeking only a short delay to Article 50, probably no time.

By the way, Bercow's ruling wasn't just the resurrection of some ancient precedent. He was ruling in line with the way parliamentary business is done every day. If a bill is voted down then it doesn't get voted on again in the same parliamentary session without a substantial change. Those who don't like the ruling are trying to make it sound like one of those ancient laws like it's illegal to enter the Houses of Parliament wearing armour.
never trust a man in a blue trench coat, never drive a car when you're dead
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 From:  william (WILLIAMA)  
 To:  william (WILLIAMA)     
42264.83 In reply to 42264.82 
Watching Prime Minister's questions just now, and May's answers are 100% genuine 1984 stuff. Apparently Parliament has fully discussed and rejected all alternative options to her proposals. 
never trust a man in a blue trench coat, never drive a car when you're dead
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 From:  Manthorp  
 To:  william (WILLIAMA)     
42264.84 In reply to 42264.83 
I think that the EU may have just shot her fox.

If France holds to the position they've just adopted - that they won't accede to the short delay unless she can provide evidence beforehand that she'll deliver a result - then she has a handful of days (maybe just three) to bribe and cajole a majority for her 'deal', or she's obliged to go cap-in-hand to the EU for the long delay. Which, of course, makes Remain more likely. Interesting times.

"We all have flaws, and mine is being wicked."
James Thurber, The Thirteen Clocks 1951
 
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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)   
 To:  william (WILLIAMA)     
42264.85 In reply to 42264.82 
"the strategy is very obvious"

“Michael Jackson fan groups to sue accusers for ‘sullying his memory’”
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 From:  william (WILLIAMA)  
 To:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)      
42264.86 In reply to 42264.85 
Indeed!
never trust a man in a blue trench coat, never drive a car when you're dead
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 From:  william (WILLIAMA)  
 To:  Manthorp     
42264.87 In reply to 42264.84 
Watched her "speech". I would have laughed if I wasn't so worried about my pension. It was like Endora Stephens from Bewitched trying out hypnosis for the first time: "You're feeling sleepy, you're tired of Brexit, your eyes are closing, I'm on your side, you want my deal, MPs are to blame, you will hear only my voice..."
never trust a man in a blue trench coat, never drive a car when you're dead
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 From:  william (WILLIAMA)  
 To:  william (WILLIAMA)     
42264.88 In reply to 42264.87 
Hah! Somebody else with a similar thought.
never trust a man in a blue trench coat, never drive a car when you're dead
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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)   
 To:  william (WILLIAMA)     
42264.89 In reply to 42264.88 
 :'-D 
“Reactions of shock to … are starting to populate Twitter.’”
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 From:  ANT_THOMAS  
 To:  william (WILLIAMA)     
42264.90 In reply to 42264.87 
In any normal circumstances that speech would have been the setup for a resignation, not with May.
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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)   
 To:  ANT_THOMAS     
42264.91 In reply to 42264.90 
She really does not seem to either grasp or care (not sure which) that after a hard brexit and all the ensuing disasters, she will be the most reviled PM in history. Apologies to Neville, Maggie, and Tony.
“Reactions of shock to … are starting to populate Twitter.’”
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 From:  william (WILLIAMA)  
 To:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)      
42264.92 In reply to 42264.91 
You missed Cameron from that list. He reintroduced entitlement as a primary qualification for government, imposed a savage austerity on the UK that saw an unprecedented rise in rough-sleeping and food banks, and vastly accelerated the flow of wealth upwards to the richest. Then, scared of his party's right-wing and constantly overshadowed by his Bullingdon Club sibling, Boris Johnson, he called the referendum, made a pitiful half-arsed attempt to lead the Remain campaign, lost, and then fucked off as though it had nothing to do with him. The little shit has even suggested, recently, that he still has something to "offer" in government. 

But yes, as Ant suggests, a resignation would be long overdue for anybody with any sense of shame. Unfortunately it's beginning to look as though she's determined to persist in order to ensure that the UK leaves the EU without a deal i.e. to carry out her threat. After meeting her yesterday, Anna Soubry said that she seemed delusional "quite seriously". 
never trust a man in a blue trench coat, never drive a car when you're dead
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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)   
 To:  william (WILLIAMA)     
42264.93 In reply to 42264.92 
She certainly looks mentally unfit, by some combination of (no doubt prescription) drug abuse and exhaustion.
“Reactions of shock to … are starting to populate Twitter.’”
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 From:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)   
 To:  ALL
42264.94 
Ooh, they done busted out the Harmy*.



*(this is how a Québécoise friend pronounced it many moons ago)
“Reactions of shock to … are starting to populate Twitter.’”
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 From:  Dave!!  
 To:  CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)      
42264.95 In reply to 42264.91 
As William said, Cameron has to be in there as well. The austerity shit is a big reason, but also the whole mess we're in now due to him calling the referendum in the first place. Don't forget that he didn't call it because he believed in the UK leaving (unlike the SNP's Scotland independence referendum), he did it purely to try and boost his own power by uniting his party behind him.

He thought firstly that the Tories wouldn't win a majority, hence they'd have to go into coalition with the Lib Dems again who'd scrub the referendum from taking place (DC could then shrug at his eurosceptic MPs and say "Well, I tried. Now back me". Then when the Tories did get a majority, he never thought for one second that Leave would win, meaning that his campaigning was pitiful. He though Remain would walk it and again, he could say "I've given you the referendum, the people want to remain. Now shut up and back me".

Lastly when Leave did win, he promptly pissed off and left everyone else to deal with the mess he'd created.

Saying that, May is making a compelling argument for becoming one of the worst PMs in history due to her refusal to compromise or listen to MPs, then trying to blame them when the shit inevitably hits the fan.
---

 
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 From:  Peter (BOUGHTONP)  
 To:  Dave!!     
42264.96 In reply to 42264.95 
Cameron knew exactly what he was doing - he'd done his research and knew the vote would be close.

Whether he expected remain or leave is irrelevant, both possibilities were planned, and every moment since he announced the referendum has been a calculated charade to expand division and resentment amongst the populace, to exhaust people and grow the apathy that allows the Tories to increase their power and control.

Whether May is in on it or a puppet is irrelevant too, her actions are deliberate, her position as PM kept whilst it's needed, just like the rift in the Conservative party - they'll both be gone in moments when it's deemed beneficial to do so.


^ Can you prove that wrong?

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 From:  william (WILLIAMA)  
 To:  Peter (BOUGHTONP)     
42264.97 In reply to 42264.96 
Nope - can't prove that wrong.

I'd be surprised if Cameron was content to appear so ugly in a planned way. And I don't believe that's how it worked out.

I do believe that there's substantially more planning and less random chance in all this, however.

I also believe that Theresa May is probably close to insanity. Not saying i'm sympathetic.
never trust a man in a blue trench coat, never drive a car when you're dead
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