War & Politicscredit crunch/financial meltdown

 

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 From:  Golden Axe  
 To:  ALL
35162.1 

Just how concerned are people about this whole credit crunch/pending financial meltdown situation?

 

I had the unfortunate pleasure of spending last night in a pub with someone who is convinced there is going to be worldwide economic meltdown with everyone losing their jobs and money becoming almost worthless. I have never been so morbidly depressed by anyone in my whole life, and I know some negative cunts. Jesus, everyone is out drinking and socialising and laughing and joking and having a good time - and this guy is giving us both a lecture on how it's going to be every man for himself; after this weekend if will never be the same again. He says that people 'don't know what's coming' and will be like America in 1929. He's even been to Morrison's and stocked up on tinned and frozen foods, in anticipation. Apparently he has banker friends in London telling him to dig a bunker as "it will be worse than we could ever imagine".

 

It put the fear of god in to my mate. I had to walk away in the end and spent the evening looking around for people I know. He got smashed as if it was the end of the world.

 

Heavy shit. I'm sure there is a problem, but even so.

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 From:  y2rich  
 To:  Mr (M00RL0CK)     
35162.3 In reply to 35162.2 
I think it's more the value of everything is going down meaning money is essentially worth less rather than going from one person to another thats the problem.
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 From:  y2rich  
 To:  Mr (M00RL0CK)     
35162.5 In reply to 35162.4 
I'm not sure I get it either to be honest. Half my rugby team are bankers and have tried explaining it but I'm not entirely sure they know exactly whats going on either.
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 From:  ANT_THOMAS  
 To:  Golden Axe     
35162.6 In reply to 35162.1 

I'm not overly concerned because I'm not directly feeling the effects.

 

In a way I'm kinda glad of it since house prices are coming down, so I may be able to afford one when I come to want to get one, but.... will anyone give me a mortgage at that point? Probably not so it means nothing I guess.

 

Like Greg, my only debt is Student Loan, and the £5k I currently owe my parents for tuition fees, but that's all. I've not really got any of my own savings to worry about. Parents don't have a mortgage anymore so there's no issue there.


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 From:  y2rich  
 To:  ANT_THOMAS     
35162.7 In reply to 35162.6 
I owe £2500 to the bank and whatever I owe to Student Loans. I have no savings to worry about. I'm not overly worried.
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 From:  Stoo  
 To:  ALL
35162.8 
I work for HBOS, and in addition to my shares now be worth next to nothing, I've got the increasingly likely looking possibility of being laid off to look forward to.

So yeah, fairly worried.
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 From:  Radio  
 To:  ALL
35162.9 

I'm surprised it's taken this long to be mentioned here. I have to say I'm fairly worried, mainly due to the share price of just about every company dropping so catastrophically, as when that happens it invariably means joblosses aren't far behind. That, plus my mortgage now makes up a much larger percentage of the value of my house.
I'm not in negative equity, but if prices keep dropping then I could potentially be in another year.

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 From:  Manthorp  
 To:  Golden Axe     
35162.10 In reply to 35162.1 
My own perception is that the people who are running about saying that the sky is falling down - financial industry professionals - are those who are going to suffer the greatest losses, but that they are a) mostly wealthy enough to cope with it and b) precipitated the whole mess in the first place with a succession of increasingly abstruse financial 'products' (a spectacular misnomer, I've always said). The other people who'll suffer are workers in manufacturing and primary industries, who will be the first to be laid off when there's a downturn in consumption. Many of the people who haunt Teh are involved in IT and media industries, and my gut feeling is they won't notice much change.

I've spent the last few years feeling somewhat guilty about my inadequate pension provision, so it's a pleasant change to think that I was accidentally making a wise decision...

"We all have flaws, and mine is being wicked."
James Thurber, The Thirteen Clocks 1951

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 From:  Dan (HERMAND)  
 To:  ALL
35162.11 

Not overly - I don't own house, have no savings and the only real debt I have is mostly tied up in the VW so I could sell it if I end up in dire straits.

 

As most of you know, I work in RM so our customers shouldn't be too heavily affected. So my job seems safe.

 

I am noticing the petrol prices, though. Just need to nab a company car and fuel allowance, though!

 

The only thing that worries me is energy prices - as i'm looking to rent next year.


We seem to have a conflict of interest, because I couldn't give a shit.
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 From:  Radio  
 To:  Dan (HERMAND)     
35162.12 In reply to 35162.11 
There's no real reason that they shouldn't come down like petrol has, they just work with a bigger stockpile so it will take longer to trickle down.
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 From:  ANT_THOMAS  
 To:  Radio     
35162.13 In reply to 35162.12 
But it won't. Gas and leccy prices just seem to go up and up, even when the prices go down at the oil pump. Look at British Gas's record profits.

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 From:  THERE IS NO GOD BUT (RENDLE)  
 To:  Radio     
35162.14 In reply to 35162.9 
I'm almost certainly in negative equity, but I have no desire to move, so as long as I can make my mortgage payments I'll be OK.

Twinkle, twinkle, little star, I don't wonder what you are:
You're the cooling down of gases, forming into solid masses.
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 From:  ANT_THOMAS  
 To:  THERE IS NO GOD BUT (RENDLE)     
35162.15 In reply to 35162.14 
So some more cash off you isn't too likely? :(

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 From:  AND HIS PROPHET IS (MOHAMED42)  
 To:  Golden Axe     
35162.16 In reply to 35162.1 

It's not going to be THAT bad, really. People may lose their jobs and obviously in America a lot of companies have gone under already. But as long as people are alive and want things, there will be an economy.

 

Remember the whole Y2k thing and how people were saying "Well you'd might as well buy a mule and move to the hills 'cause everything including doorknobs are going to stop working and it'll just be people killing each other in the streets over a scrap of bread"? This is the same kind of thing. People are stupid, and unreasonable fearmongers. Things may be a bit tight financially for a while but for most people it'll just be a matter of eliminating unnecessaries until the sun comes out again.

 

As for the economy as a whole... this is more like it just took a gigantic shit and lost 50 pounds off the waist at the same time, than it is like it's dying.


--
There is something fascinating about science. One gets such wholesale returns of conjecture out of such a trifling investment of fact.
--Mark Twain
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 From:  Drew (X3N0PH0N)  
 To:  Golden Axe     
35162.17 In reply to 35162.1 
I don't think anyone can predict what will happen because it's a totally unprecedented situation. It's different from what happened in Sweden in the 90s because of the situation with consumer credit. It's different from the 20s/30s because monetarism hadn't really kicked in then and we still had the gold standard. Also the marketplace consisted of a greater number of smaller entities back then.

My own guess is that the least that will happen is a depression the scaled of the 30s and the most extreme is that western capitalism will fall on its face (which would be comparable to something like the collapse of the Roman empire maybe. Only quicker).

Not something to get depressed about, hopefully something fairer will emerge in its place. And at least it'll stop us abusing the rest of the world for a while, maybe they'll pick up the reins.

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 From:  Drew (X3N0PH0N)  
 To:  Mr (M00RL0CK)     
35162.18 In reply to 35162.2 
China, the Middle East and India. They were the ones putting into the pot our banks were borrowing from. I have a vague suspicion that on China's part it was intentional and if it was it was fucking genius.

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 From:  Drew (X3N0PH0N)  
 To:  Manthorp     
35162.19 In reply to 35162.10 
I don't think that's really true this time. That's the typical pathology of a recession but this isn't a typical recession. I don't think the lower ends of the pay scale will be hit so much as the middle. The 'rationalisation' of our economy in the 80s/90s means that anything that can be done cheaper elsewhere is done elsewhere. the industrial work still done here is either high-end stuff or essential stuff. The unnecessary/disposable jobs now are the paper-shuffling sort that occupy the traditional middle classes.

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 From:  Drew (X3N0PH0N)  
 To:  y2rich     
35162.20 In reply to 35162.3 
(if the value of everything is going down then money is worth more (hug) )

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