Brexit deal nigh or nyet?

From: Manthorp13 Nov 2018 19:16
A deal will be agreed. It's the narrarrive that Tory central needs - stoke fears about no deal, pull an 11th hour rabbit out of the hat - electorate throw their hats in the air & ignore the fact that we're worse off than we were yesterday.

The shenanigans will start in the lead-up to the parliamentary vote on the deal. That's when Labour will try to precipitate a general election, possibly supported by pro-Brexit right wing Tories.

EDITED: 14 Nov 2018 09:42 by MANTHORP
From: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)13 Nov 2018 19:20
To: Manthorp 3 of 200
My money's on stoking this fear: no deal = 2nd vote = no brexit
From: milko13 Nov 2018 23:20
that would be lovely but I feel too optimistic. I'm still not confident a second result wouldn't come out with the same result even if it was a clear and obvious disaster. Um. An even more clear one of those.
From: Peter (BOUGHTONP)14 Nov 2018 00:02
To: milko 5 of 200
Sods law says another referendum would come out with like half a percent towards staying in the EU, making nobody happy and dragging this shit on for another few years/decades.
From: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)14 Nov 2018 01:47
To: milko 6 of 200
I don't have an opinion on that (outcome of 2nd referendum), I think it's how May will try to sell the deal on offer to brexiteers (brino as face-saving compared to rout).
EDITED: 14 Nov 2018 01:49 by DSMITHHFX
From: Manthorp14 Nov 2018 09:48
To: ALL7 of 200
I think the least societally damaging sequence is to leave the EU, demonstrate over the next couple of years that we're worse off financially and that it's had little effect upon (visible, ie. BAME) migration, then hold a referendum to rejoin.

During this time the EU will have had to address migration issues to stem the rise in racist-driven populist hard-right politics, so the immigration card can't be played to the same effect as it was first time round.
From: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)14 Nov 2018 11:40
To: Manthorp 8 of 200
racist-driven populist hard-right politics,

This is the most remarkable aspect, but it's far from the whole story. I regard it more as a symptom of the globalist, neoliberal economic structure ('world order'), that has inflicted great harm on vast swaths of humanity and set people at each other's throats, once it began to really unravel in the 2008 crash. The migration crisis is only going to ramp up with climate change and the inevitable military conflicts over diminishing resources. It is unmanageable now, and will become a whole lot worse.

From: william (WILLIAMA)14 Nov 2018 14:22
globalist, neoliberal economic structure ('world order')

That's an interesting point, but I think that the 'neoliberal' adjective is the most telling one. Racist-driven populism in all its forms, feeds on whatever targets are available. In isolationist states it turns on supposed differences within the 'indigenous' populations, whatever they may be. Probably the only effective way of combating racist-driven populism is by education combined with exposure to members of those other despised groups; effective but most definitely not infallible. Breaking down the old antagonisms between nations by education and exposure is one of the positive aspects of globalism, but when globalism is hi-jacked by the economic interests of ultra-rich individuals or corporations, it is just as good at spreading despair and hatred. It's complex though; I think it's a mistake to view globalist, neoliberal, economics as coherent. Quite often corporations who might be imagined to have an interest in national and international harmony will ally themselves with local nationalist causes and create discord simply because it gives a short-term profit, even when it might reduce longer term profitability. In this respect I think it's often better viewed in psychological terms than political or economic ones.  

Similarly the brexit argument isn't really susceptible to reasoned debate except on the margins where individuals have little investment in a particular view. For instance, my reasons for wishing to stay within the EU are largely ethical and emotional and I say that quite openly. I also happen to think there is a sound economic argument for remaining and that the sovereignty argument is a largely based on a fallacious view of what sovereignty actually is and what it has ever meant, but that is secondary to my main reasons. Incidentally, I think that one of the key aims of brexiteers, the end of free movement within the EU, is one of the saddest and most devastating losses to the UK. Unfortunately, economics has replaced morality as the only game in town (just as science has replaced religion) so all arguments centre on economics and any other areas of discussion are either secondary (defence, policing etc) or are dismissed as irrelevant, or abusive, or patronising or, or, or...

From: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)14 Nov 2018 14:45
To: william (WILLIAMA) 10 of 200
Breaking down the old antagonisms between nations by education and exposure

That would be true except: education has been steadily degraded to forms of indoctrination and vocational training -- not least in self-styled Western 'democracies'.
From: william (WILLIAMA)14 Nov 2018 17:28
To: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX) 11 of 200
I didn't mean just school education, although properly done this can help. I meant education in a broader sense to include sources of information and, of course, the various media outlets treating people and customs that are different as different, but not weird, perverse, evil etc.* (some hope). I do agree that school education is constantly under attack from politicians who want their views and values promoted, or by businesses that want schools and universities to be labour-feeds. Then there are the other type of politico/economists who feel that education can always be done cheaper if only you do that magic bit of reorganisation that will make it somehow - um - cheaper.

*unless they are - FGM for instance.
EDITED: 14 Nov 2018 17:28 by WILLIAMA
From: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)14 Nov 2018 19:19
To: william (WILLIAMA) 12 of 200
Yeah I would hope that would work. The information is already out there, but the people who need to read it don't want to. I dunno how you deal with that.
From: william (WILLIAMA)14 Nov 2018 21:07
To: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX) 13 of 200
The Greeks and their bloody democracy have got a lot to answer for.
From: Peter (BOUGHTONP)14 Nov 2018 23:45
To: Manthorp 14 of 200
> so the immigration card can't be played to the same effect as it was first time round.


From: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)15 Nov 2018 00:21
To: william (WILLIAMA) 15 of 200
Slaves something something
From: Manthorp15 Nov 2018 01:09
To: Peter (BOUGHTONP) 16 of 200
Aye, maybe so. Fucking hope not, though. Otherwise, what's the point of the kicking against the pricks we've done?
From: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)15 Nov 2018 16:13
To: ALL17 of 200
"How to pull voters back from the far-right brink? Look to Germany"

From: Peter (BOUGHTONP)18 Nov 2018 00:09
To: Manthorp 18 of 200
Sometimes the only point is that frustration and rage need an outlet, though perhaps it can also serve as a lesson in what doesn't work.
From: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX)15 Jan 2019 18:18
To: ALL19 of 200
Breakshit hitting the fan...


Is teh

- watching with bated breath?

- watching with baited bear trap?

- tuning it out?
From: ANT_THOMAS15 Jan 2019 20:49
To: CHYRON (DSMITHHFX) 20 of 200
Massive defeat. Vote of no confidence tomorrow.