Alan's Psychadelic Earthquake Breakfast

Message 39777.1 was deleted
From: Lucy (X3N0PH0N) 2 Aug 2012 23:00
To: Al JunioR (53NORTH) 2 of 392
I think the problem is that you're talking like an astrologer (or, worse, an economist). You're not making any specific claims.

You're all like "Woooooo, wooooo... I see in the mists that there will be an earthquake along the pacific rim of fire at some point in the future.... wooooo... wooooo ... the spirits are leaving me now, I grow weary <dramatic slump>".

How about, right, instead of this, you make a thread which you update with clear predictions in this form:

There will be an earthquake in PLACE on DATE of MAGNITUDE MAGNITUDE give or take ACCURACY MARGIN and I am PERCENTAGE OF CERTAINTY% certain of this.

That and nothing more. None of this 'earthquakes are actually caused by tuna burps' nonsense. Save that for another thread. Just where, when, size and likelihood.

Then someone who understand stats can work out how well you're doing, perhaps compared to the pros.
From: Peter (BOUGHTONP) 2 Aug 2012 23:13
To: Lucy (X3N0PH0N) 3 of 392
You're all like "Woooooo, wooooo...

I think that means he's trying to mate with you?
From: patch 2 Aug 2012 23:14
To: Peter (BOUGHTONP) 4 of 392
It would certainly explain the "Just where, when, size and likelihood" sentence.
From: Lucy (X3N0PH0N) 2 Aug 2012 23:25
To: patch 5 of 392
From: koswix 2 Aug 2012 23:43
To: Lucy (X3N0PH0N) 6 of 392
Heh, When I saw Stephane Geralli speak earlier this year he said that an economist's job was to make astrologers look good.
From: Lucy (X3N0PH0N) 2 Aug 2012 23:44
To: koswix 7 of 392
I heard it from the West Wing :$
From: koswix 2 Aug 2012 23:47
To: Lucy (X3N0PH0N) 8 of 392
He probably nicked it from the West Wing. I'm pretty sure he'd gone on about how great the West Wing was just before that :$
From: Lucy (X3N0PH0N) 2 Aug 2012 23:48
To: koswix 9 of 392
Well he's right. The West Wing is fucking great.
From: koswix 2 Aug 2012 23:49
To: Lucy (X3N0PH0N) 10 of 392

Not really seen it :$


I did like the bit after he (the guy) said the above, where he told a room full of CEOs etc. that, basically, we're all fucked, regardless of Scottish Independence.

Message 39777.11 was deleted
From: Lucy (X3N0PH0N) 3 Aug 2012 00:50
To: Al JunioR (53NORTH) 12 of 392
If you don't make predictions what use are you to the New Zealand Emergency Council (an organisation which google seems to think doesn't exist (is it the secret world government? I understand that they wouldn't have a website))?

If you're not making predictions, what is it you're doing?

When you say 'somebody intervened' to calm the area around the Philippines, what/who exactly do you mean?
From: Manthorp 3 Aug 2012 08:18
To: ALL13 of 392

Hijacking the thread somewhat; if one could gather huge quantities of people's best guesses/gut predictions at various aspects of the future, would it prove useful? Would the aggregation of hundreds of thousands of predictions tap into some kind of collective subconscious? If not for earthquake prediction and its like, then maybe for events predominantly determined by human action? When Greece will be forced to leave the Euro, for instance?


Or would such a database just deliver muzzy, probably gloomy, generalities?

EDITED: 3 Aug 2012 16:27 by MANTHORP
From: 99% of gargoyles look like (MR_BASTARD) 3 Aug 2012 08:19
To: Al JunioR (53NORTH) 14 of 392
I think the point is more that if you're making predictions, can you predict next week's National Lottery numbers? Do something useful, init?
From: Kenny J (WINGNUTKJ) 3 Aug 2012 08:34
To: Manthorp 15 of 392
I suspect it'd be all very interesting for a while, but then, if you're familiar with your Dick, it'd go all pear-shaped and leave you fighting for your life and questioning reality and all that.
From: Manthorp 3 Aug 2012 08:46
To: Kenny J (WINGNUTKJ) 16 of 392
I would say that my dick was more parsnip-shaped.
Message 39777.17 was deleted
From: ANT_THOMAS 3 Aug 2012 16:49
To: Al JunioR (53NORTH) 18 of 392
How can earthquake predictions be taken as terrorism?
From: 99% of gargoyles look like (MR_BASTARD) 3 Aug 2012 16:57
To: ANT_THOMAS 19 of 392
If the feds say something bad.
From: Peter (BOUGHTONP) 3 Aug 2012 16:58
To: ANT_THOMAS 20 of 392
Depends whether you define "terrorism" as "organised anti-government violence" or as simply "making people scared"?

If you convince people there's going to be an earthquake, they probably behave similarly to if you say there's going to be a bomb?